A Preview to the General Election

The General Election is a little more than 5 months away, an eternity in politics. It looks increasingly likely that Republican nominee John McCain will go up against Democratic nominee Barack Obama, the first African American to be nominated for the presidency. Many people think that Democrats are a shoo-in to for the presidency, but I will be skeptical until November 5th, when the American people will vote. The election will be historic. We'll either elect the oldest man ever to take the presidency or elect the first African American as President, which is extremely symbolic given America's dark history with slavery.

Throughout the summer, we'll here pundit after pundit discuss what the battleground states will be during the general. The reason Obama will be the better candidate for president is because he can put more states into play. There could be as much as 20 states that could be toss-ups. However, Obama could put numerous Southern states into play, such as

Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
Mississippi
Louisiana

The South has a relatively large African American population, and Obama's vote among this demographic is close to monolithic, meaning that Obama will get close or over 90% of the AA vote. Because of that, Obama will put a number of southern states into play.

Other battleground states will sound familiar, such as:

Pennsylvania
Ohio
Michigan
Florida
New Mexico

I believe Pennsylvania and Michigan will go for Obama during the general. The other three states listed are less certain.

I found this website which shows which states voted for what candidate during an election, dating back to the nation's first election in 1789. The website also gives you the opportunity to play with the electoral map, allowing you to do certain scenarios on what states each candidate could win.

http://www.270towin.com/

Obama has numerous ways to win given that he holds the states Kerry won in 2004.

2004 Election
Bush
Electoral- 286
Popular- 62,039,073

Kerry
Electoral- 252
Popular- 59,027,478

Scenario 1- Obama Loses Ohio and Florida
Obama could lose these two states and still end up winning. Obama could win by winning a combination of states:

1. Virginia and one other state with 5 or more electoral votes (Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado)
2. A bunch of small states with 5 or more electoral votes, like the states noted above
3. Winning multiple states in the South

If Obama manages to win one of the Southern states, it could be a long night for John McCain. Of course, this is only May, anything can happen in that span of time...